Is HTML5 going to disrupt more than Adobe Flash?

Mark  Ryan

July 07, 2010

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Video is fantastic for user engagement. We frequently see video positively affecting important click-paths and/or funnel entries. Video also often positively affects contributing factors such as Repeat Visitors (%), Time On Site, and Page View Per Session.

With all of the comedic bold statements about the future of Flash between Steve Jobs and Shantanu Narayen, as well as the recent failed attempt of YouTube to convert its massive video platform to HTML5, the focus seems to be on whether or not Flash is going to have such a significant hold on the future of the media on the web. But it makes me wonder, what about other media platforms. Currently Flash Video is supported on 96%+ of the PCs followed by Windows Media (~69%), and QuickTime (~61%). These 3 video formats dominate the way we all watch video on the web.

HTML5 has not officially declared which video formats will be supported, but so far the video formats discussed are very interesting. The initial supported video format in HTML5 was the open source OGG format. Other non-common formats such as Theos were added at later dates. Undoubtedly, over the next 12-24 months, HTML5 video will become more advanced and start to be able to scale to sites such as Hulu and YouTube, but should Adobe be the only organization afraid about losing market share? The open HTML5 video formats will likely cause Apple (QuickTime) and Microsoft (Windows Media) to lose some share of the market as well. If a significant segment of the video market is dominated by open source video formats, perhaps organizations such as Adobe and Apple should start focusing on having superior video creation tools.